Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing33/55, 329 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Zack MossRushing7 CAR, 21 YDS, 1 TD
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving9 REC, 109 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing20/30, 181 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing18 CAR, 55 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian KirkReceiving3 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:00Brandon McManus 51 Yd Field Goal20–37
- Q44:50Brandon McManus 49 Yd Field Goal20–34
- Q47:14Zack Moss 3 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)20–31
- Q414:14Josh Downs 2 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)13–31
- Q33:51Brenton Strange 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)6–31
- Q310:44Brandon McManus 48 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q20:06Matt Gay 56 Yd Field Goal6–21
- Q21:40Christian Kirk 29 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)3–21
- Q214:01Travis Etienne Jr. 22 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)3–14
- Q214:17Travis Etienne Jr. 2 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)3–7
- Q16:27Matt Gay 28 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:27Matt Gay 28 Yd Field GoalIND 3 – 0 JAX · IND 43% → 51% +8IND 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q214:17Travis Etienne Jr. 2 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)IND 3 – 7 JAX · JAX 47% → 67% +20JAX 47% → 67%+20 pts
- Q214:01Travis Etienne Jr. 22 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)IND 3 – 14 JAX · JAX 67% → 83% +16JAX 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q21:40Christian Kirk 29 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)IND 3 – 21 JAX · JAX 86% → 95% +9JAX 86% → 95%+9 pts
- Q20:06Matt Gay 56 Yd Field GoalIND 6 – 21 JAX · IND 4% → 7% +3IND 4% → 7%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -2
- JAX 57%
- Fair odds
- JAX -133
- IND +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.9 – 23.0 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −12 | — | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +51 Elo | JAX 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 57.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.0 | Points scored | 21.020th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 20.412th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.617th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.24 | Yards per play | 5.1517th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7326th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.