Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing23/34, 264 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing13 CAR, 43 YDS
- DeAndre HopkinsReceiving8 REC, 140 YDS
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing11/14, 155 YDS
- Zack MossRushing23 CAR, 165 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh DownsReceiving6 REC, 97 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:00Matt Gay 28 Yd Field Goal16–23
- Q413:22Matt Gay 35 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q32:02Nick Folk 34 Yd Field Goal16–17
- Q38:00Zack Moss 3 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)13–17
- Q312:48Tyjae Spears 19 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)13–10
- Q24:39Nick Folk 53 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q29:32Matt Gay 43 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q10:41Zack Moss 56 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)3–7
- Q13:13Nick Folk 27 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:41Zack Moss 56 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)TEN 3 – 7 IND · IND 45% → 65% +20IND 45% → 65%+20 pts
- Q312:48Tyjae Spears 19 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 13 – 10 IND · TEN 33% → 58% +25TEN 33% → 58%+25 pts
- Q38:00Zack Moss 3 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)TEN 13 – 17 IND · IND 40% → 68% +28IND 40% → 68%+28 pts
- Q32:02Nick Folk 34 Yd Field GoalTEN 16 – 17 IND · TEN 30% → 43% +13TEN 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q413:22Matt Gay 35 Yd Field GoalTEN 16 – 20 IND · IND 57% → 72% +15IND 57% → 72%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 53%
- Fair odds
- IND -117
- TEN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 21.3 – 22.4 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +1 | TEN: Ryan Tannehill · IND: Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +24 Elo | IND 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3218.0 | Points scored | 24.314th of 32 |
| 8th of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 24.822nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.518th of 32 |
| 20th of 324.89 | Yards per play | 4.8323rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325.04 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2419th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 0–223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.