Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing20/29, 204 YDS, 1 TD
- Trevor LawrenceRushing8 CAR, 59 YDS
- Christian KirkReceiving6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Derek CarrPassing33/55, 301 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing17 CAR, 62 YDS
- Alvin KamaraReceiving12 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:08Christian Kirk 44 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)31–24
- Q46:38Michael Thomas 17 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Derek Carr Pass to Alvin Kamara for Two-Point Conversion)24–24
- Q414:21Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)24–16
- Q36:47Foyesade Oluokun 24 Yd Interception Return (Brandon McManus Kick)24–9
- Q39:49Blake Grupe 42 Yd Field Goal17–9
- Q20:32Brandon McManus 43 Yd Field Goal17–6
- Q21:57Blake Grupe 35 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q213:09Travis Etienne Jr. 17 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)14–3
- Q11:26Blake Grupe 23 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:44Travis Etienne Jr. 2 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44Travis Etienne Jr. 2 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 7 – 0 NO · JAX 51% → 69% +18JAX 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q213:09Travis Etienne Jr. 17 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 14 – 3 NO · JAX 63% → 80% +17JAX 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q36:47Foyesade Oluokun 24 Yd Interception Return (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 24 – 9 NO · JAX 80% → 94% +14JAX 80% → 94%+14 pts
- Q46:38Michael Thomas 17 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Derek Carr Pass to Alvin Kamara for Two-Point Conversion)JAX 24 – 24 NO · NO 6% → 50% +43NO 6% → 50%+43 pts
- Q43:08Christian Kirk 44 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Brandon McManus Kick)JAX 31 – 24 NO · JAX 50% → 97% +47JAX 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -0.5
- JAX 53%
- Fair odds
- JAX -104
- NO +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.2 – 20.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +18 Elo | JAX 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 51.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 18.224th of 32 |
| 15th of 3220.3 | Points allowed | 16.06th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+3.3 | Margin | +2.214th of 32 |
| 20th of 324.94 | Yards per play | 4.6126th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 4.594th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.