San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/26, 296 YDS, 3 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing16 CAR, 95 YDS
- George KittleReceiving3 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing17/29, 185 YDS, 2 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing9 CAR, 35 YDS
- Christian KirkReceiving6 REC, 104 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:40Kyle Juszczyk 22 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)34–3
- Q31:20Deebo Samuel 23 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)27–3
- Q314:10George Kittle 66 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)20–3
- Q20:00Jake Moody 35 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q24:20Brandon McManus 37 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q14:21Jake Moody 39 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q111:34Brandon Aiyuk 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:34Brandon Aiyuk 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 JAX · SF 39% → 57% +18SF 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q14:21Jake Moody 39 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 0 JAX · SF 59% → 67% +8SF 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q24:20Brandon McManus 37 Yd Field GoalSF 10 – 3 JAX · JAX 27% → 36% +9JAX 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q20:00Jake Moody 35 Yd Field GoalSF 13 – 3 JAX · SF 66% → 75% +9SF 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q314:10George Kittle 66 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 20 – 3 JAX · SF 76% → 91% +15SF 76% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jaguars 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -3.5
- JAX 63%
- Fair odds
- JAX -160
- SF +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 20.2 – 23.5 JAX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +91 Elo | JAX 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 61.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3227.3 | Points scored | 24.110th of 32 |
| 4th of 3217.5 | Points allowed | 19.58th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+9.8 | Margin | +4.69th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.25 | Yards per play | 5.1418th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2119th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.