San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing12/27, 125 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing11 CAR, 43 YDS
- Brandon AiyukReceiving4 REC, 76 YDS
Browns- PJ WalkerPassing18/34, 192 YDS, 2 INT
- Jerome FordRushing17 CAR, 84 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving4 REC, 108 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:40Dustin Hopkins 29 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q43:21Dustin Hopkins 50 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q410:58Jordan Mason 8 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)17–13
- Q32:59Dustin Hopkins 46 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q311:09Dustin Hopkins 42 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q25:38Kareem Hunt 16 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)10–7
- Q27:54Jake Moody 25 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q112:16Christian McCaffrey 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:16Christian McCaffrey 13 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 0 CLE · SF 65% → 80% +15SF 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q25:38Kareem Hunt 16 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)SF 10 – 7 CLE · CLE 13% → 29% +16CLE 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q410:58Jordan Mason 8 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 17 – 13 CLE · SF 39% → 77% +38SF 39% → 77%+38 pts
- Q43:21Dustin Hopkins 50 Yd Field GoalSF 17 – 16 CLE · CLE 12% → 36% +24CLE 12% → 36%+24 pts
- Q41:40Dustin Hopkins 29 Yd Field GoalSF 17 – 19 CLE · CLE 33% → 75% +43CLE 33% → 75%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5.5
- SF 69%
- Fair odds
- SF -186
- CLE +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 23.8 – 19.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1650 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −24 | SF: Brock Purdy · CLE: PJ Walker, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +137 Elo | SF 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3233.4 | Points scored | 19.023rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3213.6 | Points allowed | 15.03rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+19.8 | Margin | +4.010th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.33 | Yards per play | 4.4427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.43 | Yards allowed per play | 3.801st of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.