Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing14/24, 153 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Tony PollardRushing8 CAR, 29 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving4 REC, 49 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing17/24, 252 YDS, 4 TD
- Jordan MasonRushing10 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving3 REC, 67 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:59Jordan Mason 26 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)10–42
- Q414:19Kyle Juszczyk 1 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)10–35
- Q37:20George Kittle 10 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)10–28
- Q311:53Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q22:36Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–21
- Q27:45KaVontae Turpin 26 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–14
- Q213:16George Kittle 38 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–14
- Q111:10George Kittle 19 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:10George Kittle 19 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)DAL 0 – 7 SF · SF 60% → 76% +16SF 60% → 76%+16 pts
- Q213:16George Kittle 38 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)DAL 0 – 14 SF · SF 77% → 90% +13SF 77% → 90%+13 pts
- Q27:45KaVontae Turpin 26 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 14 SF · DAL 9% → 22% +13DAL 9% → 22%+13 pts
- Q22:36Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)DAL 7 – 21 SF · SF 79% → 92% +13SF 79% → 92%+13 pts
- Q37:20George Kittle 10 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)DAL 10 – 28 SF · SF 90% → 98% +8SF 90% → 98%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -3.5
- SF 62%
- Fair odds
- SF -153
- DAL +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 20.5 – 23.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1618 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +82 Elo | SF 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3231.0 | Points scored | 31.33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3210.3 | Points allowed | 14.52nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+20.8 | Margin | +16.82nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 6.342nd of 32 |
| 7th of 324.74 | Yards allowed per play | 4.513rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.