San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing21/30, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing15 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- George KittleReceiving5 REC, 78 YDS
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing35/45, 378 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Alexander MattisonRushing8 CAR, 39 YDS
- Jordan AddisonReceiving7 REC, 123 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:21Jake Moody 55 Yd Field Goal17–22
- Q30:20Greg Joseph 54 Yd Field Goal14–22
- Q35:54Christian McCaffrey 35 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)14–19
- Q36:59Greg Joseph 20 Yd Field Goal7–19
- Q20:07Jordan Addison 60 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph PAT failed)7–16
- Q21:01Christian McCaffrey 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–10
- Q27:33Greg Joseph 21 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q14:48Jordan Addison 20 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:48Jordan Addison 20 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)SF 0 – 7 MIN · MIN 39% → 58% +19MIN 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q21:01Christian McCaffrey 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)SF 7 – 10 MIN · SF 26% → 49% +23SF 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q20:07Jordan Addison 60 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph PAT failed)SF 7 – 16 MIN · MIN 52% → 72% +20MIN 52% → 72%+20 pts
- Q35:54Christian McCaffrey 35 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)SF 14 – 19 MIN · SF 14% → 36% +23SF 14% → 36%+23 pts
- Q413:21Jake Moody 55 Yd Field GoalSF 17 – 22 MIN · SF 18% → 30% +12SF 18% → 30%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -4.5
- SF 66%
- Fair odds
- SF -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 23.7 – 20.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SF: Brock Purdy · MIN: Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +118 Elo | SF 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3230.7 | Points scored | 21.518th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214.5 | Points allowed | 22.521st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+16.2 | Margin | −1.017th of 32 |
| 2nd of 325.97 | Yards per play | 5.608th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.929th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–331st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.