Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing31/41, 281 YDS, 2 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing16 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving10 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing29/47, 284 YDS, 2 TD
- Alexander MattisonRushing8 CAR, 26 YDS
- Jordan AddisonReceiving6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q412:11Alexander Mattison 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)27–20
- Q32:45Travis Kelce 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)27–13
- Q310:10Rashee Rice 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)20–13
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 40 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q21:39Jordan Addison 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)10–13
- Q28:02Greg Joseph 29 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q212:46Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q14:02Greg Joseph 40 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:00Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:00Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 0 MIN · KC 56% → 73% +17KC 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q21:39Jordan Addison 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)KC 10 – 13 MIN · MIN 32% → 56% +24MIN 32% → 56%+24 pts
- Q310:10Rashee Rice 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 20 – 13 MIN · KC 54% → 78% +24KC 54% → 78%+24 pts
- Q32:45Travis Kelce 4 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 27 – 13 MIN · KC 81% → 96% +14KC 81% → 96%+14 pts
- Q412:11Alexander Mattison 9 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Greg Joseph Kick)KC 27 – 20 MIN · MIN 2% → 15% +13MIN 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -2.5
- KC 59%
- Fair odds
- KC -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 22.8 – 21.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | KC: Patrick Mahomes · MIN: Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +60 Elo | KC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 22.515th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215.0 | Points allowed | 23.821st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+10.3 | Margin | −1.320th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.89 | Yards per play | 6.183rd of 32 |
| 9th of 324.87 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0110th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.