Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing11/22, 99 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Justin FieldsRushing11 CAR, 47 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving3 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing24/33, 272 YDS, 3 TD
- Isiah PachecoRushing15 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving7 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:20DJ Moore 9 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)10–41
- Q413:34Cairo Santos 21 Yd Field Goal3–41
- Q37:40Travis Kelce 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–41
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 38 Yd Field Goal0–34
- Q21:06Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)0–31
- Q21:51Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q23:05Jerick McKinnon 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–21
- Q211:34Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)0–14
- Q16:51Jerick McKinnon 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:51Jerick McKinnon 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)CHI 0 – 7 KC · KC 64% → 79% +16KC 64% → 79%+16 pts
- Q211:34Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)CHI 0 – 14 KC · KC 80% → 91% +11KC 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q23:05Jerick McKinnon 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)CHI 0 – 21 KC · KC 93% → 98% +5KC 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q21:51Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 24 KC · KC 98% → >99% +1KC 98% → >99%+1 pts
- Q21:06Isiah Pacheco 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)CHI 0 – 31 KC · KC >99% → >99% +1KC >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -5
- KC 67%
- Fair odds
- KC -183
- CHI +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.8 – 24.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CHI: Justin Fields · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +123 Elo | KC 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3218.5 | Points scored | 18.521st of 32 |
| 30th of 3232.5 | Points allowed | 15.05th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−14.0 | Margin | +3.511th of 32 |
| 25th of 324.52 | Yards per play | 5.677th of 32 |
| 30th of 325.98 | Yards allowed per play | 4.779th of 32 |
| 22nd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–118th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Bears: last 2