Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Kirk CousinsPassing21/31, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- Alexander MattisonRushing18 CAR, 44 YDS
- T.J. HockensonReceiving6 REC, 50 YDS
Bears- Tyson BagentPassing10/14, 83 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Onta ForemanRushing15 CAR, 65 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving5 REC, 51 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:46Tyson Bagent 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)19–13
- Q36:44Jordan Hicks 42 Yd Fumble Return (Greg Joseph Kick)19–6
- Q20:12Jordan Addison 10 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins12–6
- Q23:18Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q28:56Greg Joseph 51 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q213:41Cairo Santos 22 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q16:24Greg Joseph 53 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:56Greg Joseph 51 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 3 CHI · MIN 46% → 55% +9MIN 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q23:18Cairo Santos 53 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 6 CHI · CHI 44% → 54% +10CHI 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q20:12Jordan Addison 10 Yd pass from Kirk CousinsMIN 12 – 6 CHI · MIN 47% → 67% +21MIN 47% → 67%+21 pts
- Q36:44Jordan Hicks 42 Yd Fumble Return (Greg Joseph Kick)MIN 19 – 6 CHI · MIN 71% → 90% +19MIN 71% → 90%+19 pts
- Q47:46Tyson Bagent 1 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)MIN 19 – 13 CHI · CHI 1% → 16% +14CHI 1% → 16%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 55%
- Fair odds
- CHI -122
- MIN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 22.1 – 23.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIN: Kirk Cousins · CHI: Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +33 Elo | CHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.0 | Points scored | 23.011th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 31.430th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.4 | Margin | −8.427th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 5.4611th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0630th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.