Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing15/29, 282 YDS, 4 TD
- Khalil HerbertRushing10 CAR, 76 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving8 REC, 230 YDS, 3 TD
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing37/51, 388 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Sam HowellRushing4 CAR, 19 YDS
- Logan ThomasReceiving9 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Cairo Santos 37 Yd Field Goal40–20
- Q44:09DJ Moore 56 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)37–20
- Q410:51Curtis Samuel 3 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–20
- Q414:09Cairo Santos 43 Yd Field Goal30–14
- Q33:17Joey Slye 32 Yd Field Goal27–14
- Q312:00Logan Thomas 2 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Run for Two-Point Conversion)27–11
- Q20:24Cole Kmet 4 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)27–3
- Q22:24Cairo Santos 36 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q28:33Joey Slye 51 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q214:15DJ Moore 11 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)17–0
- Q14:18Cairo Santos 22 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q112:04DJ Moore 20 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:04DJ Moore 20 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 WSH · CHI 36% → 54% +18CHI 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q14:18Cairo Santos 22 Yd Field GoalCHI 10 – 0 WSH · CHI 56% → 64% +8CHI 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q214:15DJ Moore 11 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 17 – 0 WSH · CHI 66% → 83% +16CHI 66% → 83%+16 pts
- Q312:00Logan Thomas 2 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Run for Two-Point Conversion)CHI 27 – 11 WSH · WSH 2% → 10% +8WSH 2% → 10%+8 pts
- Q410:51Curtis Samuel 3 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CHI 30 – 20 WSH · WSH 1% → 9% +8WSH 1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Commanders 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -4.5
- WSH 66%
- Fair odds
- WSH -178
- CHI +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 20.9 – 25.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CHI: Justin Fields · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +113 Elo | WSH 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 64.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3218.8 | Points scored | 22.317th of 32 |
| 31st of 3234.3 | Points allowed | 30.029th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−15.5 | Margin | −7.824th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.05 | Yards per play | 4.8123rd of 32 |
| 31st of 326.11 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6023rd of 32 |
| 25th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.