Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing21/28, 223 YDS, 3 TD
- Jaleel McLaughlinRushing7 CAR, 72 YDS
- Jerry JeudyReceiving3 REC, 52 YDS
Bears- Justin FieldsPassing28/35, 335 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Khalil HerbertRushing18 CAR, 103 YDS
- DJ MooreReceiving8 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:46Wil Lutz 51 Yd Field Goal31–28
- Q46:55Jonathon Cooper 35 Yd Fumble Return (Wil Lutz Kick)28–28
- Q49:36Courtland Sutton 13 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)21–28
- Q30:14Brandon Johnson 4 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)14–28
- Q34:11Khalil Herbert 2 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)7–28
- Q26:08Cole Kmet 3 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)7–21
- Q211:44Cole Kmet 22 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)7–14
- Q214:53DJ Moore 29 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)7–7
- Q15:08Jaleel McLaughlin 18 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:08Jaleel McLaughlin 18 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 0 CHI · DEN 48% → 67% +19DEN 48% → 67%+19 pts
- Q214:53DJ Moore 29 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)DEN 7 – 7 CHI · CHI 32% → 52% +20CHI 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q211:44Cole Kmet 22 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Cairo Santos Kick)DEN 7 – 14 CHI · CHI 52% → 71% +20CHI 52% → 71%+20 pts
- Q46:55Jonathon Cooper 35 Yd Fumble Return (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 28 – 28 CHI · DEN 9% → 49% +40DEN 9% → 49%+40 pts
- Q41:46Wil Lutz 51 Yd Field GoalDEN 31 – 28 CHI · DEN 50% → 86% +37DEN 50% → 86%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHI 51%
- Fair odds
- CHI -107
- DEN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 23.0 – 23.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · CHI: Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +4 Elo | CHI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 51.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 15.726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3240.7 | Points allowed | 35.331st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−17.7 | Margin | −19.732nd of 32 |
| 7th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 4.3628th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327.16 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0230th of 32 |
| 23rd of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.