Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing28/32, 283 YDS, 3 TD
- Joe MixonRushing16 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving10 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing22/31, 365 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Brock PurdyRushing6 CAR, 57 YDS
- George KittleReceiving9 REC, 149 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:54Joe Mixon 5 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)31–17
- Q48:12Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)24–17
- Q413:04Ja'Marr Chase 17 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)24–10
- Q311:09Evan McPherson 56 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q22:44Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q10:00Andrei Iosivas 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)14–7
- Q13:19Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)7–7
- Q18:11Tyler Boyd 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Tyler Boyd 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 7 – 0 SF · CIN 35% → 53% +18CIN 35% → 53%+18 pts
- Q13:19Christian McCaffrey 2 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)CIN 7 – 7 SF · SF 45% → 64% +19SF 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q10:00Andrei Iosivas 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 14 – 7 SF · CIN 36% → 56% +20CIN 36% → 56%+20 pts
- Q413:04Ja'Marr Chase 17 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)CIN 24 – 10 SF · CIN 77% → 96% +18CIN 77% → 96%+18 pts
- Q48:12Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Jake Moody Kick)CIN 24 – 17 SF · SF 1% → 15% +14SF 1% → 15%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
49ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF -5.5
- SF 68%
- Fair odds
- SF -193
- CIN +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 19.1 – 23.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | CIN: Joe Burrow · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SF +135 Elo | SF 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3216.7 | Points scored | 28.72nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 15.63rd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.5 | Margin | +13.11st of 32 |
| 31st of 324.18 | Yards per play | 5.992nd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 4.855th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.