Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Geno SmithPassing27/41, 326 YDS, 2 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler LockettReceiving6 REC, 94 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing24/35, 185 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Joe MixonRushing12 CAR, 38 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving6 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:47Evan McPherson 52 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q32:24Jason Myers 23 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q20:43Jason Myers 55 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q212:20Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–14
- Q12:22Tyler Boyd 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–7
- Q18:38Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:38Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 CIN · SEA 53% → 71% +18SEA 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q12:22Tyler Boyd 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)SEA 7 – 7 CIN · CIN 29% → 47% +19CIN 29% → 47%+19 pts
- Q212:20Andrei Iosivas 3 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)SEA 7 – 14 CIN · CIN 47% → 68% +20CIN 47% → 68%+20 pts
- Q32:24Jason Myers 23 Yd Field GoalSEA 13 – 14 CIN · SEA 34% → 47% +13SEA 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q411:47Evan McPherson 52 Yd Field GoalSEA 13 – 17 CIN · CIN 54% → 70% +16CIN 54% → 70%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Seahawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -1.5
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 22.4 – 21.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | SEA: Geno Smith · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.8 | Points scored | 16.627th of 32 |
| 19th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 22.820th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.0 | Margin | −6.224th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.44 | Yards per play | 4.2031st of 32 |
| 13th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5925th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.