Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/30, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Lamar JacksonRushing13 CAR, 62 YDS
- Mark AndrewsReceiving4 REC, 69 YDS
Titans- Ryan TannehillPassing8/16, 76 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing12 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyjae SpearsReceiving1 REC, 48 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:38Nick Folk 38 Yd Field Goal24–16
- Q44:16Justin Tucker 36 Yd Field Goal24–13
- Q412:49Justin Tucker 20 Yd Field Goal21–13
- Q38:24Derrick Henry 15 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)18–13
- Q39:24Nick Folk 27 Yd Field Goal18–6
- Q20:00Justin Tucker 29 Yd Field Goal18–3
- Q23:28Zay Flowers 10 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker PAT blocked)15–3
- Q210:13Justin Tucker 23 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q10:04Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q15:34Nick Folk 26 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q110:26Justin Tucker 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:04Justin Tucker 28 Yd Field GoalBAL 6 – 3 TEN · BAL 55% → 64% +8BAL 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q210:13Justin Tucker 23 Yd Field GoalBAL 9 – 3 TEN · BAL 64% → 72% +8BAL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q23:28Zay Flowers 10 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker PAT blocked)BAL 15 – 3 TEN · BAL 73% → 87% +14BAL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- Q38:24Derrick Henry 15 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)BAL 18 – 13 TEN · TEN 10% → 27% +18TEN 10% → 27%+18 pts
- Q412:49Justin Tucker 20 Yd Field GoalBAL 21 – 13 TEN · BAL 77% → 88% +10BAL 77% → 88%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ravens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2
- BAL 58%
- Fair odds
- BAL -128
- TEN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 21.8 – 20.0 TEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BAL: Lamar Jackson · TEN: Ryan Tannehill (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 17.626th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215.0 | Points allowed | 18.69th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+6.8 | Margin | −1.019th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.20 | Yards per play | 5.1118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 323.88 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.