Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing22/39, 262 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing17 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyle PhilipsReceiving4 REC, 68 YDS
Steelers- Kenny PickettPassing19/30, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing11 CAR, 88 YDS
- Diontae JohnsonReceiving7 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:02Diontae Johnson 3 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)16–20
- Q30:19Nick Folk 48 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q35:41Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q20:00Nick Folk 36 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q21:16Chris Boswell 29 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q26:35Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)10–7
- Q12:48Nick Folk 36 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q110:11Najee Harris 10 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:11Najee Harris 10 Yd Run (Chris Boswell Kick)TEN 0 – 7 PIT · PIT 57% → 74% +17PIT 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q26:35Derrick Henry 2 Yd Run (Nick Folk Kick)TEN 10 – 7 PIT · TEN 32% → 54% +22TEN 32% → 54%+22 pts
- Q35:41Chris Boswell 30 Yd Field GoalTEN 13 – 13 PIT · PIT 42% → 54% +13PIT 42% → 54%+13 pts
- Q30:19Nick Folk 48 Yd Field GoalTEN 16 – 13 PIT · TEN 46% → 61% +15TEN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q44:02Diontae Johnson 3 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Chris Boswell Kick)TEN 16 – 20 PIT · PIT 25% → 85% +60PIT 25% → 85%+60 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Steelers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -2
- PIT 58%
- Fair odds
- PIT -134
- TEN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 19.7 – 21.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +1 | — | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · PIT: Kenny Pickett (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +53 Elo | PIT 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3218.9 | Points scored | 16.129th of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 21.018th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.1 | Margin | −4.924th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.19 | Yards per play | 4.5828th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6128th of 32 |
| 30th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.