Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Will LevisPassing19/39, 199 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing11 CAR, 24 YDS
- Kyle PhilipsReceiving3 REC, 61 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing18/29, 278 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing20 CAR, 51 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving6 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:01Chase McLaughlin 35 Yd Field Goal6–20
- Q412:54Nick Folk 27 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q32:46Mike Evans 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)3–17
- Q310:42Chase McLaughlin 25 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q25:39Rachaad White 43 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)3–7
- Q18:34Nick Folk 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:34Nick Folk 38 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 0 TB · TEN 46% → 54% +8TEN 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q25:39Rachaad White 43 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TEN 3 – 7 TB · TB 43% → 66% +22TB 43% → 66%+22 pts
- Q310:42Chase McLaughlin 25 Yd Field GoalTEN 3 – 10 TB · TB 67% → 77% +10TB 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q32:46Mike Evans 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TEN 3 – 17 TB · TB 81% → 95% +15TB 81% → 95%+15 pts
- Q412:54Nick Folk 27 Yd Field GoalTEN 6 – 17 TB · TEN 3% → 6% +4TEN 3% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -1
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -117
- TEN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 20.4 – 21.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | — | TEN: Will Levis, usually Ryan Tannehill · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +27 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3218.5 | Points scored | 19.822nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 20.916th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.5 | Margin | −1.119th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.16 | Yards per play | 4.9822nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9031st of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.