Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing21/30, 265 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing20 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
- Mike EvansReceiving4 REC, 87 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing30/42, 470 YDS, 5 TD
- Devin SingletaryRushing13 CAR, 26 YDS
- Noah BrownReceiving6 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:06Tank Dell 15 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)37–39
- Q40:46Cade Otton 14 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)37–33
- Q48:45Dare Ogunbowale 29 Yd Field Goal30–33
- Q411:43Rachaad White 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)30–30
- Q414:11Dalton Schultz 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (C.J. Stroud Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–30
- Q35:59Tank Dell 29 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–22
- Q39:23Chase McLaughlin 55 Yd Field Goal23–16
- Q312:20Noah Brown 75 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–16
- Q312:38Chase McLaughlin 49 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q25:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 50 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q29:05Rachaad White 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–7
- Q12:13Cade Otton 3 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–7
- Q19:10Nico Collins 14 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)3–7
- Q112:56Chase McLaughlin 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:59Tank Dell 29 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 23 – 22 HOU · HOU 27% → 52% +24HOU 27% → 52%+24 pts
- Q414:11Dalton Schultz 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (C.J. Stroud Run for Two-Point Conversion)TB 23 – 30 HOU · HOU 50% → 85% +35HOU 50% → 85%+35 pts
- Q411:43Rachaad White 1 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 30 – 30 HOU · TB 13% → 46% +32TB 13% → 46%+32 pts
- Q40:46Cade Otton 14 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 37 – 33 HOU · TB 4% → 99% +94TB 4% → 99%+94 pts
- Q40:06Tank Dell 15 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)TB 37 – 39 HOU · HOU <1% → >99% +100HOU <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Texans 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -148
- TB +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 19.2 – 21.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +78 Elo | HOU 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3217.3 | Points scored | 21.120th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 18.36th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +2.911th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.94 | Yards per play | 5.1418th of 32 |
| 28th of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1915th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.