Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing25/42, 237 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing9 CAR, 39 YDS
- Rachaad WhiteReceiving7 REC, 70 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing31/40, 324 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing14 CAR, 67 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving6 REC, 92 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:44Mike Evans 24 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Cade Otton for Two-Point Conversion)18–24
- Q310:40Gabe Davis 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–24
- Q22:40Dalton Kincaid 22 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–17
- Q26:46Chris Godwin 3 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–10
- Q27:40Chase McLaughlin 57 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q211:03Josh Allen 13 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–10
- Q18:04Tyler Bass 37 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:04Tyler Bass 37 Yd Field GoalTB 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 62% → 69% +7BUF 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q211:03Josh Allen 13 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)TB 0 – 10 BUF · BUF 69% → 85% +16BUF 69% → 85%+16 pts
- Q26:46Chris Godwin 3 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 10 BUF · TB 21% → 40% +19TB 21% → 40%+19 pts
- Q22:40Dalton Kincaid 22 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)TB 10 – 17 BUF · BUF 59% → 80% +20BUF 59% → 80%+20 pts
- Q310:40Gabe Davis 4 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)TB 10 – 24 BUF · BUF 81% → 94% +13BUF 81% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -4
- BUF 65%
- Fair odds
- BUF -167
- TB +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 19.3 – 23.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +105 Elo | BUF 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3217.2 | Points scored | 28.33rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3217.3 | Points allowed | 16.95th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +11.42nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.95 | Yards per play | 5.864th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6126th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.