Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing27/41, 265 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing13 CAR, 56 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving8 REC, 75 YDS
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing25/30, 272 YDS, 2 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing9 CAR, 34 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving6 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:12Mike Gesicki 1 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)25–29
- Q41:58Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Josh Allen Pass to Dawson Knox for Two-Point Conversion)25–22
- Q45:32Stefon Diggs 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)17–22
- Q47:36Kendrick Bourne 4 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)10–22
- Q34:30Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q39:53James Cook 8 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)10–13
- Q27:36Chad Ryland 24 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q214:49Tyler Bass 36 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q16:58Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)0–10
- Q110:02Chad Ryland 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:58Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)BUF 0 – 10 NE · NE 42% → 60% +19NE 42% → 60%+19 pts
- Q39:53James Cook 8 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 10 – 13 NE · BUF 24% → 50% +25BUF 24% → 50%+25 pts
- Q45:32Stefon Diggs 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 17 – 22 NE · BUF <1% → 18% +17BUF <1% → 18%+17 pts
- Q41:58Josh Allen 1 Yd Run (Josh Allen Pass to Dawson Knox for Two-Point Conversion)BUF 25 – 22 NE · BUF 5% → 87% +82BUF 5% → 87%+82 pts
- Q40:12Mike Gesicki 1 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Chad Ryland Kick)BUF 25 – 29 NE · NE <1% → >99% +100NE <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -6.5
- BUF 72%
- Fair odds
- BUF -203
- NE +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.8 – 18.8 NE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | BUF: Josh Allen · NE: Mac Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +164 Elo | BUF 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 67.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.8 | Points scored | 12.031st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214.8 | Points allowed | 25.324th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+14.0 | Margin | −13.331st of 32 |
| 2nd of 325.98 | Yards per play | 4.4629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 4.757th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.