New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Mac JonesPassing24/33, 200 YDS, 1 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing10 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- Kendrick BourneReceiving10 REC, 89 YDS
Raiders- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing14/22, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing25 CAR, 77 YDS
- Michael MayerReceiving5 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:47Mac Jones sacked in end zone by Bilal Nichols and Maxx Crosby for a Safety17–21
- Q43:33Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)17–19
- Q413:03Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal10–19
- Q33:55Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q38:56Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)10–13
- Q20:10Daniel Carlson 37 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q28:38Chad Ryland 43 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q212:22Jakobi Meyers 12 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–10
- Q16:54Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:22Jakobi Meyers 12 Yd pass from Jimmy Garoppolo (Daniel Carlson Kick)NE 0 – 10 LV · LV 67% → 84% +16LV 67% → 84%+16 pts
- Q38:56Ezekiel Elliott 2 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 10 – 13 LV · NE 12% → 32% +20NE 12% → 32%+20 pts
- Q33:55Daniel Carlson 30 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 16 LV · LV 69% → 80% +11LV 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q43:33Rhamondre Stevenson 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)NE 17 – 19 LV · NE <1% → 28% +27NE <1% → 28%+27 pts
- Q41:47Mac Jones sacked in end zone by Bilal Nichols and Maxx Crosby for a SafetyNE 17 – 21 LV · LV 78% → 93% +15LV 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raiders 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -3.5
- LV 62%
- Fair odds
- LV -155
- NE +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 19.5 – 22.6 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +1 | NE: Mac Jones · LV: Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +84 Elo | LV 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 60.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.0 | Points scored | 15.829th of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.2 | Points allowed | 22.822nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−15.2 | Margin | −7.026th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.44 | Yards per play | 4.7825th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2318th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.