Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing24/39, 238 YDS, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing17 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsReceiving8 REC, 81 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing13/24, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Joshua KelleyRushing17 CAR, 65 YDS
- Joshua PalmerReceiving3 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:59Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)17–24
- Q34:51Daniel Carlson 22 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q23:05Justin Herbert 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–24
- Q27:20Keenan Allen 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–17
- Q210:42Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q10:45Aidan O'Connell 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q110:38Justin Herbert 12 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:38Justin Herbert 12 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 62% → 78% +16LAC 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q10:45Aidan O'Connell 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 7 LAC · LV 22% → 39% +17LV 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q210:42Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field GoalLV 7 – 10 LAC · LAC 60% → 69% +9LAC 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q27:20Keenan Allen 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 7 – 17 LAC · LAC 69% → 85% +17LAC 69% → 85%+17 pts
- Q23:05Justin Herbert 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 7 – 24 LAC · LAC 86% → 95% +9LAC 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 64%
- Fair odds
- LAC -165
- LV +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 20.7 – 24.2 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −15 | — | LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +99 Elo | LAC 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3215.0 | Points scored | 28.76th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.7 | Points allowed | 29.026th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−10.7 | Margin | −0.316th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.36 | Yards per play | 6.103rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 6.5631st of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.