New York Giants at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyrod TaylorPassing24/36, 200 YDS
- Saquon BarkleyRushing24 CAR, 93 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 69 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing19/30, 169 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing14 CAR, 71 YDS
- Stefon DiggsReceiving10 REC, 100 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:48Quintin Morris 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)9–14
- Q410:35Graham Gano 29 Yd Field Goal9–7
- Q414:54Deonte Harty 3 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)6–7
- Q25:08Graham Gano 43 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q13:19Graham Gano 29 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:19Graham Gano 29 Yd Field GoalNYG 3 – 0 BUF · NYG 28% → 36% +8NYG 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q25:08Graham Gano 43 Yd Field GoalNYG 6 – 0 BUF · NYG 41% → 50% +10NYG 41% → 50%+10 pts
- Q414:54Deonte Harty 3 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)NYG 6 – 7 BUF · BUF 33% → 67% +34BUF 33% → 67%+34 pts
- Q410:35Graham Gano 29 Yd Field GoalNYG 9 – 7 BUF · NYG 34% → 51% +17NYG 34% → 51%+17 pts
- Q43:48Quintin Morris 15 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)NYG 9 – 14 BUF · BUF 37% → 92% +55BUF 37% → 92%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bills 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -8.5
- BUF 78%
- Fair odds
- BUF -280
- NYG +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 18.3 – 25.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | — | NYG: Tyrod Taylor, usually Daniel Jones · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +219 Elo | BUF 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 73.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3212.4 | Points scored | 31.82nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3230.6 | Points allowed | 16.05th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−18.2 | Margin | +15.82nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.99 | Yards per play | 6.162nd of 32 |
| 31st of 326.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7528th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.