Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing19/25, 250 YDS
- Tyler AllgeierRushing21 CAR, 59 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving6 REC, 54 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing27/42, 275 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing13 CAR, 34 YDS
- Mike EvansReceiving6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Younghoe Koo 51 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q40:45Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal13–13
- Q32:04Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q25:14Chase McLaughlin 24 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q211:51Younghoe Koo 24 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q13:24Mike Evans 40 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–7
- Q16:48Desmond Ridder 2 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:48Desmond Ridder 2 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 0 TB · ATL 38% → 57% +19ATL 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q13:24Mike Evans 40 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)ATL 7 – 7 TB · TB 42% → 62% +19TB 42% → 62%+19 pts
- Q32:04Younghoe Koo 41 Yd Field GoalATL 13 – 10 TB · ATL 43% → 57% +14ATL 43% → 57%+14 pts
- Q40:45Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field GoalATL 13 – 13 TB · TB 5% → 51% +47TB 5% → 51%+47 pts
- Q40:00Younghoe Koo 51 Yd Field GoalATL 16 – 13 TB · ATL 45% → 100% +55ATL 45% → 100%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -4.5
- TB 65%
- Fair odds
- TB -170
- ATL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 18.7 – 22.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | ATL: Desmond Ridder · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +108 Elo | TB 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.5 | Points scored | 18.025th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 17.67th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.5 | Margin | +0.416th of 32 |
| 20th of 324.95 | Yards per play | 4.8425th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.70 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1416th of 32 |
| 28th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.