Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing14/23, 151 YDS, 3 TD
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 31 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving6 REC, 81 YDS
Falcons- Desmond RidderPassing28/47, 307 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Tyler AllgeierRushing13 CAR, 51 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving9 REC, 125 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:38Jonnu Smith 2 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–16
- Q312:03Brian Robinson Jr. 24 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)24–10
- Q21:31Younghoe Koo 47 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q25:18Curtis Samuel 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)17–7
- Q211:47Antonio Gibson 1 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)10–7
- Q12:46Kyle Pitts 9 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)3–7
- Q18:45Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:46Kyle Pitts 9 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Younghoe Koo Kick)WSH 3 – 7 ATL · ATL 52% → 71% +19ATL 52% → 71%+19 pts
- Q211:47Antonio Gibson 1 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 10 – 7 ATL · WSH 29% → 49% +20WSH 29% → 49%+20 pts
- Q25:18Curtis Samuel 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 17 – 7 ATL · WSH 51% → 72% +22WSH 51% → 72%+22 pts
- Q312:03Brian Robinson Jr. 24 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 24 – 10 ATL · WSH 68% → 87% +19WSH 68% → 87%+19 pts
- Q412:38Jonnu Smith 2 Yd pass from Desmond Ridder (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)WSH 24 – 16 ATL · ATL 4% → 17% +13ATL 4% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -160
- WSH +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 20.4 – 23.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | WSH: Sam Howell · ATL: Desmond Ridder (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +93 Elo | ATL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.8 | Points scored | 16.627th of 32 |
| 31st of 3232.0 | Points allowed | 19.29th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−10.2 | Margin | −2.622nd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.03 | Yards per play | 4.9222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 325.89 | Yards allowed per play | 4.848th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.