Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing30/44, 353 YDS, 2 TD
- Craig ReynoldsRushing10 CAR, 15 YDS
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving12 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing19/37, 206 YDS, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing7 CAR, 26 YDS
- Chris Godwin Jr.Receiving6 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:00Riley Patterson 36 Yd Field Goal20–6
- Q33:19Jameson Williams 45 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)17–6
- Q37:44Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q22:39Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)10–3
- Q27:34Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q18:09Riley Patterson 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:09Riley Patterson 30 Yd Field GoalDET 3 – 0 TB · DET 48% → 56% +8DET 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q27:34Chase McLaughlin 33 Yd Field GoalDET 3 – 3 TB · TB 42% → 52% +9TB 42% → 52%+9 pts
- Q22:39Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 10 – 3 TB · DET 49% → 71% +23DET 49% → 71%+23 pts
- Q37:44Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field GoalDET 10 – 6 TB · TB 25% → 35% +11TB 25% → 35%+11 pts
- Q33:19Jameson Williams 45 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)DET 17 – 6 TB · DET 67% → 89% +22DET 67% → 89%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Buccaneers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -0.5
- TB 51%
- Fair odds
- TB -108
- DET +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 21.8 – 22.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.6 | Points scored | 21.021st of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 17.08th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+8.2 | Margin | +4.09th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.81 | Yards per play | 4.8824th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.69 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0412th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.