Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing17/26, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing18 CAR, 47 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving8 REC, 64 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing24/39, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing16 CAR, 58 YDS
- Hayden HurstReceiving2 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q48:09Eddy Pineiro 49 Yd Field Goal27–13
- Q413:40Kenny Moore II 66 Yd Interception Return (Matt Gay Kick)27–10
- Q34:34DJ Chark Jr. 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)20–10
- Q20:20Kenny Moore II 49 Yd Interception Return (Matt Gay Kick)20–3
- Q20:53Matt Gay 57 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q23:34Eddy Pineiro 35 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q27:43Jonathan Taylor 10 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)10–0
- Q213:52Matt Gay 26 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:52Matt Gay 26 Yd Field GoalIND 3 – 0 CAR · IND 52% → 61% +9IND 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q27:43Jonathan Taylor 10 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)IND 10 – 0 CAR · IND 61% → 80% +19IND 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q20:20Kenny Moore II 49 Yd Interception Return (Matt Gay Kick)IND 20 – 3 CAR · IND 82% → 94% +12IND 82% → 94%+12 pts
- Q34:34DJ Chark Jr. 5 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)IND 20 – 10 CAR · CAR 3% → 13% +10CAR 3% → 13%+10 pts
- Q413:40Kenny Moore II 66 Yd Interception Return (Matt Gay Kick)IND 27 – 10 CAR · IND 91% → 99% +8IND 91% → 99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 54%
- Fair odds
- IND -111
- CAR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 23.7 – 22.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | 0 | IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +29 Elo | IND 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.6 | Points scored | 18.126th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3228.6 | Points allowed | 28.431st of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−3.0 | Margin | −10.330th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.40 | Yards per play | 4.2831st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4624th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.