New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Derek CarrPassing19/27, 310 YDS, 2 TD
- Taysom HillRushing9 CAR, 63 YDS, 2 TD
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving3 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Gardner Minshew IIPassing23/41, 213 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing12 CAR, 95 YDS
- Josh DownsReceiving7 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:24Blake Grupe 27 Yd Field Goal38–27
- Q48:19Drew Ogletree 33 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)35–27
- Q410:49Taysom Hill 1 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)35–20
- Q30:07Alvin Kamara 16 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)28–20
- Q20:21Matt Gay 42 Yd Field Goal21–20
- Q25:42Rashid Shaheed 58 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)21–17
- Q27:28Taysom Hill 20 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)14–17
- Q211:39Zack Moss 1 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–17
- Q214:49Matt Gay 20 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q13:44Alvin Kamara 18 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q16:56Michael Pittman Jr. 10 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:56Michael Pittman Jr. 10 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)NO 0 – 7 IND · IND 56% → 74% +17IND 56% → 74%+17 pts
- Q13:44Alvin Kamara 18 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 7 – 7 IND · NO 26% → 44% +18NO 26% → 44%+18 pts
- Q27:28Taysom Hill 20 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 17 IND · NO 18% → 35% +18NO 18% → 35%+18 pts
- Q25:42Rashid Shaheed 58 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 21 – 17 IND · NO 35% → 58% +22NO 35% → 58%+22 pts
- Q30:07Alvin Kamara 16 Yd Run (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 28 – 20 IND · NO 52% → 82% +30NO 52% → 82%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Colts 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 57%
- Fair odds
- IND -132
- NO +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 21.2 – 23.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +7 | NO: Derek Carr · IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +50 Elo | IND 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 56.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3219.0 | Points scored | 25.46th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.1 | Points allowed | 27.330th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.9 | Margin | −1.920th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.62 | Yards per play | 5.3813th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.76 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0211th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.