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Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast

FinalCBS

Away

Browns

4-2

39–38

at

Home

Colts

3-4

CLE 51%IND 49%

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Lucas Oil Stadium · CBS

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored CLE favored14 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%CLE

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Browns
Colts

Scoring summary

  • Q40:15Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)39–38
  • Q45:38Michael Pittman Jr. 75 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)33–38
  • Q46:33Dustin Hopkins 58 Yd Field Goal33–31
  • Q414:09Matt Gay 27 Yd Field Goal30–31
  • Q35:11Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)30–28
  • Q39:23Dustin Hopkins 54 Yd Field Goal30–21
  • Q20:00Dustin Hopkins 54 Yd Field Goal27–21
  • Q21:42Tony Fields II Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Dustin Hopkins Kick)24–21
  • Q23:51Gardner Minshew 4 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)17–21
  • Q28:38Dustin Hopkins 44 Yd Field Goal17–14
  • Q214:22Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)14–14
  • Q14:28Gardner Minshew 17 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)7–14
  • Q111:38Josh Downs 59 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)7–7
  • Q114:03Jerome Ford 69 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)7–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q23:51Gardner Minshew 4 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)CLE 17 – 21 IND · IND 39% → 62% +23
  2. Q21:42Tony Fields II Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Dustin Hopkins Kick)CLE 24 – 21 IND · CLE 37% → 61% +24
  3. Q35:11Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)CLE 30 – 28 IND · IND 16% → 41% +25
  4. Q45:38Michael Pittman Jr. 75 Yd pass from Gardner Minshew (Matt Gay Kick)CLE 33 – 38 IND · IND 34% → 85% +51
  5. Q40:15Kareem Hunt 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)CLE 39 – 38 IND · CLE <1% → 84% +84

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Browns 51%

Toss-upHit
CLE 51%IND 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
CLE 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE -0.5
CLE 52%
Fair odds
CLE -104
IND +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 21.7 – 21.5 IND
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEINDWhy
Team rating15211488Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NFL
Quarterbacks+4−12CLE: Deshaun Watson · IND: Gardner Minshew II, usually Anthony Richardson Sr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score)
Elo ratingsCLE +13 EloCLE 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsIND 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 50.9%75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.

Try another venue →
Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatIND
21st of 3219.0Points scored23.311th of 32
5th of 3215.4Points allowed25.324th of 32
11th of 32+3.6Margin−2.020th of 32
28th of 324.50Yards per play5.1416th of 32
1st of 323.82Yards allowed per play5.1315th of 32
28th of 320–1Road vs home1–219th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrownsColts
1300135014001450150015501600league averageSepDecMarJunSep

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.