Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/38, 189 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing12 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- Brandin CooksReceiving3 REC, 42 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing16/29, 123 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing10 CAR, 57 YDS
- Adam ThielenReceiving8 REC, 74 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:18Brandon Aubrey 27 Yd Field Goal33–10
- Q413:48DaRon Bland 30 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey PAT failed)30–10
- Q413:58Tony Pollard 21 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–10
- Q31:59Tommy Tremble 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)17–10
- Q20:24CeeDee Lamb 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–3
- Q21:56Eddy Pineiro 42 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q211:01Brandon Aubrey 30 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q13:20Luke Schoonmaker 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:20Luke Schoonmaker 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 0 CAR · DAL 69% → 84% +15DAL 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q21:56Eddy Pineiro 42 Yd Field GoalDAL 10 – 3 CAR · CAR 10% → 16% +5CAR 10% → 16%+5 pts
- Q20:24CeeDee Lamb 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 3 CAR · DAL 85% → 95% +10DAL 85% → 95%+10 pts
- Q31:59Tommy Tremble 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Eddy Pineiro Kick)DAL 17 – 10 CAR · CAR 3% → 13% +10CAR 3% → 13%+10 pts
- Q413:58Tony Pollard 21 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 24 – 10 CAR · DAL 88% → 98% +10DAL 88% → 98%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -8
- DAL 76%
- Fair odds
- DAL -249
- CAR +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 25.6 – 19.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1343 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | 0 | DAL: Dak Prescott · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +204 Elo | DAL 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 71.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.9 | Points scored | 17.029th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 26.930th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.6 | Margin | −9.931st of 32 |
| 8th of 325.67 | Yards per play | 4.1831st of 32 |
| 4th of 324.77 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0913th of 32 |
| 19th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.