Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing13/22, 162 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Royce FreemanRushing9 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- Darrell Henderson Jr.Receiving3 REC, 54 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/31, 304 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing12 CAR, 53 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving12 REC, 158 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:31Lucas Havrisik 47 Yd Field Goal20–43
- Q412:19Brandin Cooks 25 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–43
- Q31:32Brandon Aubrey 27 Yd Field Goal17–36
- Q311:29Ben Skowronek 20 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Tutu Atwell Pass to Matthew Stafford for Two-Point Conversion)15–33
- Q20:04Royce Freeman 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–33
- Q22:27CeeDee Lamb 22 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–33
- Q212:45CeeDee Lamb 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–26
- Q213:39Sam Williams Safety3–19
- Q10:36DaRon Bland 30 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)3–17
- Q10:43Brandon Aubrey 58 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q15:22Lucas Havrisik 33 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:44Jake Ferguson 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:44Jake Ferguson 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)LAR 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 62% → 78% +16DAL 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q15:22Lucas Havrisik 33 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 7 DAL · LAR 22% → 28% +7LAR 22% → 28%+7 pts
- Q10:43Brandon Aubrey 58 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 10 DAL · DAL 72% → 78% +7DAL 72% → 78%+7 pts
- Q10:36DaRon Bland 30 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Aubrey Kick)LAR 3 – 17 DAL · DAL 78% → 90% +12DAL 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q212:45CeeDee Lamb 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)LAR 3 – 26 DAL · DAL 93% → 98% +5DAL 93% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 64%
- Fair odds
- DAL -169
- LAR +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 19.6 – 23.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAR: Matthew Stafford · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +102 Elo | DAL 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 62.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 25.75th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 16.74th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.0 | Margin | +9.05th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.58 | Yards per play | 5.0520th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9910th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.