Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing21/30, 272 YDS, 1 TD
- Dak PrescottRushing7 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 117 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing22/37, 227 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Austin EkelerRushing14 CAR, 27 YDS
- Keenan AllenReceiving7 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:19Brandon Aubrey 39 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q47:11Gerald Everett 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–17
- Q411:19Brandin Cooks 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–10
- Q31:08Cameron Dicker 24 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q20:00Brandon Aubrey 32 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q16:21Dak Prescott 18 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–7
- Q110:31Keenan Allen 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Keenan Allen 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)DAL 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 52% → 69% +17LAC 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q16:21Dak Prescott 18 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 7 LAC · DAL 30% → 48% +18DAL 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q411:19Brandin Cooks 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 10 LAC · DAL 49% → 84% +35DAL 49% → 84%+35 pts
- Q47:11Gerald Everett 1 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)DAL 17 – 17 LAC · LAC 10% → 51% +40LAC 10% → 51%+40 pts
- Q42:19Brandon Aubrey 39 Yd Field GoalDAL 20 – 17 LAC · DAL 50% → 83% +33DAL 50% → 83%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- LAC 51%
- Fair odds
- LAC -107
- DAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 22.1 – 22.6 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +6 Elo | LAC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 51.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3226.8 | Points scored | 27.55th of 32 |
| 7th of 3216.6 | Points allowed | 26.025th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+10.2 | Margin | +1.515th of 32 |
| 19th of 324.95 | Yards per play | 5.804th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.10 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8830th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.