Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing29/44, 374 YDS, 3 TD
- Tony PollardRushing12 CAR, 51 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving11 REC, 191 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing17/23, 207 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing18 CAR, 43 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:23Jalen Tolbert 7 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–28
- Q31:13A.J. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)17–28
- Q311:23DeVonta Smith 29 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)17–21
- Q21:15Brandon Aubrey 51 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q25:09Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–14
- Q211:16KaVontae Turpin 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–7
- Q11:37Jake Ferguson 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–7
- Q15:46Kenneth Gainwell 12 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:37Jake Ferguson 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 7 PHI · DAL 23% → 41% +18DAL 23% → 41%+18 pts
- Q211:16KaVontae Turpin 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 7 PHI · DAL 41% → 62% +21DAL 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q25:09Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 14 – 14 PHI · PHI 35% → 58% +23PHI 35% → 58%+23 pts
- Q311:23DeVonta Smith 29 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 17 – 21 PHI · PHI 46% → 71% +25PHI 46% → 71%+25 pts
- Q31:13A.J. Brown 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)DAL 17 – 28 PHI · PHI 73% → 93% +20PHI 73% → 93%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 61%
- Fair odds
- PHI -153
- DAL +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 21.0 – 24.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1628 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DAL: Dak Prescott · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +80 Elo | PHI 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3228.1 | Points scored | 28.03rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3217.1 | Points allowed | 21.519th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+11.0 | Margin | +6.57th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.20 | Yards per play | 5.559th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.97 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2016th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.