Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing23/32, 216 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Raheem MostertRushing9 CAR, 45 YDS
- Tyreek HillReceiving11 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing23/31, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing15 CAR, 62 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving10 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:46Kenneth Gainwell 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)17–31
- Q30:15A.J. Brown 14 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)17–24
- Q34:02Jerome Baker 22 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)17–17
- Q20:39Tyreek Hill 27 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)10–17
- Q23:10Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)3–17
- Q211:25Dallas Goedert 19 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–10
- Q10:59Jason Sanders 40 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:54Jake Elliott 24 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:25Dallas Goedert 19 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)MIA 3 – 10 PHI · PHI 56% → 75% +19PHI 56% → 75%+19 pts
- Q23:10Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)MIA 3 – 17 PHI · PHI 76% → 90% +14PHI 76% → 90%+14 pts
- Q20:39Tyreek Hill 27 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 10 – 17 PHI · MIA 9% → 23% +14MIA 9% → 23%+14 pts
- Q34:02Jerome Baker 22 Yd Interception Return (Jason Sanders Kick)MIA 17 – 17 PHI · MIA 19% → 46% +27MIA 19% → 46%+27 pts
- Q30:15A.J. Brown 14 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)MIA 17 – 24 PHI · PHI 53% → 83% +30PHI 53% → 83%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -131
- MIA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 22.7 – 24.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +50 Elo | PHI 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3237.2 | Points scored | 25.84th of 32 |
| 26th of 3226.0 | Points allowed | 20.715th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+11.2 | Margin | +5.27th of 32 |
| 1st of 328.00 | Yards per play | 5.5411th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.18 | Yards allowed per play | 4.908th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.