Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing28/45, 280 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Jalen HurtsRushing8 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving7 REC, 131 YDS
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing19/33, 186 YDS
- Breece HallRushing12 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Garrett WilsonReceiving8 REC, 90 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:46Breece Hall 8 Yd Run (Zach Wilson Pass to Randall Cobb for Two-Point Conversion)14–20
- Q30:45Greg Zuerlein 38 Yd Field Goal14–12
- Q20:00Greg Zuerlein 35 Yd Field Goal14–9
- Q22:30Greg Zuerlein 42 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q25:32D'Andre Swift 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–3
- Q213:12Greg Zuerlein 43 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q13:04Jalen Hurts 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:04Jalen Hurts 3 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 NYJ · PHI 58% → 75% +18PHI 58% → 75%+18 pts
- Q25:32D'Andre Swift 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 3 NYJ · PHI 69% → 86% +17PHI 69% → 86%+17 pts
- Q20:00Greg Zuerlein 35 Yd Field GoalPHI 14 – 9 NYJ · NYJ 19% → 28% +8NYJ 19% → 28%+8 pts
- Q30:45Greg Zuerlein 38 Yd Field GoalPHI 14 – 12 NYJ · NYJ 23% → 36% +13NYJ 23% → 36%+13 pts
- Q41:46Breece Hall 8 Yd Run (Zach Wilson Pass to Randall Cobb for Two-Point Conversion)PHI 14 – 20 NYJ · NYJ 22% → 98% +76NYJ 22% → 98%+76 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3.5
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -141
- NYJ +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.2 – 20.7 NYJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +15 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +84 Elo | PHI 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.2 | Points scored | 18.624th of 32 |
| 13th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 21.014th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+7.4 | Margin | −2.421st of 32 |
| 7th of 325.63 | Yards per play | 5.0818th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.05 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1416th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.