Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing29/38, 319 YDS, 4 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing16 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving8 REC, 130 YDS, 2 TD
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing39/52, 397 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Brian Robinson Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 59 YDS
- Jahan DotsonReceiving8 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:01Jamison Crowder 26 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)38–31
- Q41:50D'Andre Swift 7 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)38–24
- Q47:17Julio Jones 8 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)31–24
- Q48:47DeVonta Smith 38 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)24–24
- Q412:03Logan Thomas 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)17–24
- Q34:17A.J. Brown 25 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)17–17
- Q20:01Joey Slye 61 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q20:34A.J. Brown 16 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–14
- Q212:40Jahan Dotson 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)3–14
- Q12:11Jake Elliott 51 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q17:13Terry McLaurin 26 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:34A.J. Brown 16 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 14 WSH · PHI 25% → 48% +23PHI 25% → 48%+23 pts
- Q34:17A.J. Brown 25 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 17 – 17 WSH · PHI 29% → 59% +30PHI 29% → 59%+30 pts
- Q412:03Logan Thomas 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Joey Slye Kick)PHI 17 – 24 WSH · WSH 43% → 79% +36WSH 43% → 79%+36 pts
- Q48:47DeVonta Smith 38 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 24 – 24 WSH · PHI 16% → 56% +40PHI 16% → 56%+40 pts
- Q47:17Julio Jones 8 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 31 – 24 WSH · PHI 56% → 92% +36PHI 56% → 92%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Eagles 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -6
- PHI 71%
- Fair odds
- PHI -194
- WSH +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 24.7 – 20.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1614 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | PHI: Jalen Hurts · WSH: Sam Howell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +153 Elo | PHI 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3226.6 | Points scored | 20.020th of 32 |
| 14th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 27.129th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.4 | Margin | −7.127th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.49 | Yards per play | 4.7524th of 32 |
| 9th of 324.92 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6928th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.