Washington Commanders at New York Giants, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Sam HowellPassing22/42, 249 YDS, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing7 CAR, 31 YDS
- Terry McLaurinReceiving6 REC, 90 YDS
Giants- Tyrod TaylorPassing18/29, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing21 CAR, 77 YDS
- Darren WallerReceiving7 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q310:21Brian Robinson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)7–14
- Q28:56Saquon Barkley 32 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Graham Gano Kick)0–14
- Q214:18Darren Waller 15 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Graham Gano Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:18Darren Waller 15 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Graham Gano Kick)WSH 0 – 7 NYG · NYG 48% → 68% +20NYG 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q28:56Saquon Barkley 32 Yd pass from Tyrod Taylor (Graham Gano Kick)WSH 0 – 14 NYG · NYG 69% → 85% +16NYG 69% → 85%+16 pts
- Q310:21Brian Robinson Jr. 4 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)WSH 7 – 14 NYG · WSH 9% → 26% +17WSH 9% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Commanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -108
- NYG +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 22.4 – 21.8 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +7 | WSH: Sam Howell · NYG: Tyrod Taylor, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +25 Elo | WSH 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3222.2 | Points scored | 11.832nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 27.828th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−7.2 | Margin | −16.032nd of 32 |
| 24th of 324.87 | Yards per play | 4.0532nd of 32 |
| 27th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1331st of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.