Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing21/38, 185 YDS
- Chuba HubbardRushing9 CAR, 23 YDS
- Michael StrachanReceiving1 REC, 45 YDS
Bears- Tyson BagentPassing20/33, 162 YDS
- D'Onta ForemanRushing21 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving5 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:06Eddy Pineiro 39 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q36:33D'Onta Foreman 4 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)10–16
- Q20:00Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field Goal10–9
- Q23:06Cairo Santos 36 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q213:33Eddy Pineiro 33 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q12:29Cairo Santos 54 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q15:46Ihmir Smith-Marsette 79 Yd Punt Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:46Ihmir Smith-Marsette 79 Yd Punt Return (Eddy Pineiro Kick)CAR 7 – 0 CHI · CAR 42% → 61% +19CAR 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q23:06Cairo Santos 36 Yd Field GoalCAR 10 – 6 CHI · CHI 33% → 43% +10CHI 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q20:00Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field GoalCAR 10 – 9 CHI · CHI 42% → 53% +11CHI 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q36:33D'Onta Foreman 4 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CAR 10 – 16 CHI · CHI 51% → 78% +27CHI 51% → 78%+27 pts
- Q411:06Eddy Pineiro 39 Yd Field GoalCAR 13 – 16 CHI · CAR 17% → 30% +13CAR 17% → 30%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bears 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Fair odds
- CHI -142
- CAR +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 21.1 – 23.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1356 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | 0 | −24 | CAR: Bryce Young · CHI: Tyson Bagent, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +74 Elo | CHI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3217.5 | Points scored | 20.919th of 32 |
| 31st of 3228.3 | Points allowed | 26.928th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.8 | Margin | −6.026th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.23 | Yards per play | 5.1717th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4223rd of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 1–323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.