Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Brian HoyerPassing17/32, 129 YDS, 2 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing11 CAR, 35 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving7 REC, 57 YDS
Bears- Tyson BagentPassing21/29, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- D'Onta ForemanRushing16 CAR, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving8 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:10Jakobi Meyers 9 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–30
- Q45:36Jaylon Johnson 39 Yd Interception Return (Cairo Santos PAT blocked)6–30
- Q45:46Cairo Santos 54 Yd Field Goal6–24
- Q412:20Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field Goal6–21
- Q34:04D'Onta Foreman 5 Yd pass from Tyson Bagent (Cairo Santos Kick)3–21
- Q21:47Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q27:31D'Onta Foreman 3 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)0–14
- Q13:45D'Onta Foreman 2 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:45D'Onta Foreman 2 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)LV 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 46% → 65% +19CHI 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q27:31D'Onta Foreman 3 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)LV 0 – 14 CHI · CHI 68% → 85% +17CHI 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q21:47Daniel Carlson 40 Yd Field GoalLV 3 – 14 CHI · LV 13% → 19% +6LV 13% → 19%+6 pts
- Q34:04D'Onta Foreman 5 Yd pass from Tyson Bagent (Cairo Santos Kick)LV 3 – 21 CHI · CHI 88% → 97% +10CHI 88% → 97%+10 pts
- Q412:20Daniel Carlson 25 Yd Field GoalLV 6 – 21 CHI · LV <1% → 2% +1LV <1% → 2%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raiders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -1.5
- LV 55%
- Fair odds
- LV -118
- CHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 22.5 – 21.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −18 | −44 | LV: Brian Hoyer, usually Jimmy Garoppolo · CHI: Tyson Bagent, usually Justin Fields (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +34 Elo | LV 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 54.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3216.7 | Points scored | 21.319th of 32 |
| 19th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 29.329th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−5.2 | Margin | −8.028th of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.89 | Yards per play | 5.2514th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.14 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7629th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.