Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Tyson BagentPassing25/37, 232 YDS, 2 INT
- D'Onta ForemanRushing9 CAR, 34 YDS
- Cole KmetReceiving10 REC, 79 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing31/40, 298 YDS, 3 TD
- Austin EkelerRushing15 CAR, 29 YDS
- Austin EkelerReceiving7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:12Tyson Bagent 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–30
- Q33:00Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal7–30
- Q38:51Cameron Dicker 53 Yd Field Goal7–27
- Q20:04Donald Parham Jr. 11 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–24
- Q21:47Darrynton Evans 11 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)7–17
- Q28:50Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q10:43Simi Fehoko 9 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–14
- Q17:08Austin Ekeler 39 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:08Austin Ekeler 39 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)CHI 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 60% → 77% +17LAC 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q10:43Simi Fehoko 9 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)CHI 0 – 14 LAC · LAC 77% → 90% +12LAC 77% → 90%+12 pts
- Q28:50Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field GoalCHI 0 – 17 LAC · LAC 91% → 94% +3LAC 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q21:47Darrynton Evans 11 Yd Run (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 17 LAC · CHI 5% → 14% +10CHI 5% → 14%+10 pts
- Q20:04Donald Parham Jr. 11 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)CHI 7 – 24 LAC · LAC 86% → 96% +9LAC 86% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chargers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 61%
- Fair odds
- LAC -157
- CHI +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 21.2 – 24.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −31 | — | CHI: Tyson Bagent, usually Justin Fields · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +80 Elo | LAC 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3222.6 | Points scored | 24.010th of 32 |
| 28th of 3226.9 | Points allowed | 25.825th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.3 | Margin | −1.819th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.16 | Yards per play | 5.607th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1031st of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.