Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing17/30, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Joshua KelleyRushing7 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Joshua PalmerReceiving5 REC, 133 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing32/42, 424 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing13 CAR, 32 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving12 REC, 179 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:30Isiah Pacheco 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–31
- Q20:15Travis Kelce 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–24
- Q27:06Gerald Everett 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–17
- Q28:37Rashee Rice 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)10–17
- Q210:42Joshua Kelley 49 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–10
- Q214:11Marquez Valdes-Scantling 46 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)3–10
- Q11:48Cameron Dicker 55 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q16:49Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:11Marquez Valdes-Scantling 46 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)LAC 3 – 10 KC · KC 65% → 82% +17KC 65% → 82%+17 pts
- Q210:42Joshua Kelley 49 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 10 – 10 KC · LAC 18% → 36% +17LAC 18% → 36%+17 pts
- Q28:37Rashee Rice 6 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)LAC 10 – 17 KC · KC 64% → 82% +18KC 64% → 82%+18 pts
- Q27:06Gerald Everett 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 17 – 17 KC · LAC 18% → 36% +18LAC 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q20:15Travis Kelce 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)LAC 17 – 24 KC · KC 63% → 83% +20KC 63% → 83%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6
- KC 70%
- Fair odds
- KC -206
- LAC +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 19.2 – 24.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | LAC: Justin Herbert · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +145 Elo | KC 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 67.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3225.4 | Points scored | 24.510th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.8 | Points allowed | 14.73rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +9.85th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.55 | Yards per play | 5.724th of 32 |
| 31st of 325.83 | Yards allowed per play | 4.754th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.