Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Russell WilsonPassing13/22, 95 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing10 CAR, 52 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving4 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing30/40, 306 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Isiah PachecoRushing16 CAR, 62 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving9 REC, 124 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Harrison Butker 52 Yd Field Goal8–19
- Q46:07Courtland Sutton 11 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Javonte Williams Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–16
- Q39:16Harrison Butker 25 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 60 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q23:06Kadarius Toney 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)0–10
- Q15:40Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:40Harrison Butker 35 Yd Field GoalDEN 0 – 3 KC · KC 71% → 77% +7KC 71% → 77%+7 pts
- Q23:06Kadarius Toney 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DEN 0 – 10 KC · KC 76% → 90% +14KC 76% → 90%+14 pts
- Q20:00Harrison Butker 60 Yd Field GoalDEN 0 – 13 KC · KC 90% → 94% +4KC 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q39:16Harrison Butker 25 Yd Field GoalDEN 0 – 16 KC · KC 95% → 97% +2KC 95% → 97%+2 pts
- Q46:07Courtland Sutton 11 Yd pass from Russell Wilson (Javonte Williams Run for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 8 – 16 KC · DEN <1% → 4% +4DEN <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Chiefs 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -8
- KC 76%
- Fair odds
- KC -260
- DEN +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 19.6 – 26.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DEN: Russell Wilson · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +197 Elo | KC 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3224.2 | Points scored | 25.69th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3236.2 | Points allowed | 16.05th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−12.0 | Margin | +9.64th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.78 | Yards per play | 5.768th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.95 | Yards allowed per play | 4.868th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.