Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Tyson BagentPassing18/30, 220 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- D'Onta ForemanRushing20 CAR, 83 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving5 REC, 82 YDS
Saints- Derek CarrPassing25/34, 211 YDS, 2 TD
- Taysom HillRushing11 CAR, 52 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving6 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q411:05Juwan Johnson 3 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Blake Grupe Kick)17–24
- Q33:27Cairo Santos 31 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q311:43Blake Grupe 55 Yd Field Goal14–17
- Q26:05Taysom Hill 2 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)14–14
- Q212:52Cole Kmet 9 Yd pass from Tyson Bagent (Cairo Santos Kick)14–7
- Q10:44Chris Olave 8 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q111:21Cole Kmet 18 Yd pass from Tyson Bagent (Cairo Santos Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Cole Kmet 18 Yd pass from Tyson Bagent (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 0 NO · CHI 33% → 50% +18CHI 33% → 50%+18 pts
- Q10:44Chris Olave 8 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)CHI 7 – 7 NO · NO 46% → 65% +20NO 46% → 65%+20 pts
- Q212:52Cole Kmet 9 Yd pass from Tyson Bagent (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 14 – 7 NO · CHI 35% → 55% +20CHI 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q26:05Taysom Hill 2 Yd pass from Derek Carr (Blake Grupe Kick)CHI 14 – 14 NO · NO 42% → 64% +22NO 42% → 64%+22 pts
- Q411:05Juwan Johnson 3 Yd pass from Taysom Hill (Blake Grupe Kick)CHI 17 – 24 NO · NO 58% → 89% +31NO 58% → 89%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Saints 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5.5
- NO 69%
- Fair odds
- NO -209
- CHI +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 19.3 – 24.5 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −29 | — | CHI: Tyson Bagent, usually Justin Fields · NO: Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +141 Elo | NO 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 67.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3221.4 | Points scored | 21.417th of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 19.39th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.9 | Margin | +2.113th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.10 | Yards per play | 4.9922nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.49 | Yards allowed per play | 4.876th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.