New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing14/27, 86 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing13 CAR, 66 YDS
- Daniel BellingerReceiving2 REC, 34 YDS
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing26/35, 404 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing12 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- Brandin CooksReceiving9 REC, 173 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:06Sterling Shepard 2 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)17–49
- Q42:14Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–49
- Q48:54Randy Bullock 40 Yd Field Goal10–42
- Q31:29CeeDee Lamb 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–42
- Q34:40Michael Gallup 41 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–35
- Q38:07Lawrence Cager 10 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)7–28
- Q20:16Dak Prescott 10 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–28
- Q23:48Brandin Cooks 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–21
- Q28:48Jake Ferguson 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–14
- Q13:38CeeDee Lamb 14 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:38CeeDee Lamb 14 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 0 – 7 DAL · DAL 74% → 87% +13DAL 74% → 87%+13 pts
- Q28:48Jake Ferguson 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 0 – 14 DAL · DAL 87% → 95% +8DAL 87% → 95%+8 pts
- Q23:48Brandin Cooks 10 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 0 – 21 DAL · DAL 96% → 99% +3DAL 96% → 99%+3 pts
- Q20:16Dak Prescott 10 Yd Run (Brandon Aubrey Kick)NYG 0 – 28 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +1DAL >99% → >99%+1 pts
- Q38:07Lawrence Cager 10 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Randy Bullock Kick)NYG 7 – 28 DAL · NYG <1% → <1% +0NYG <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cowboys 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -10
- DAL 80%
- Fair odds
- DAL -326
- NYG +326 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 16.7 – 25.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −6 | — | NYG: Tommy DeVito, usually Daniel Jones · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +246 Elo | DAL 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 76.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.2 | Points scored | 27.54th of 32 |
| 25th of 3224.1 | Points allowed | 18.55th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−12.9 | Margin | +9.03rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.10 | Yards per play | 5.2814th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.59 | Yards allowed per play | 4.977th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYG 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.