New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tommy DeVitoPassing15/20, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing16 CAR, 90 YDS
- Darius SlaytonReceiving4 REC, 59 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing16/25, 209 YDS
- Josh JacobsRushing26 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- Tre TuckerReceiving2 REC, 52 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:29Daniel Carlson 41 Yd Field Goal6–30
- Q414:11Wan'Dale Robinson 9 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–27
- Q38:23Daniel Carlson 46 Yd Field Goal0–27
- Q20:04Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal0–24
- Q21:57Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–21
- Q25:06Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–14
- Q19:45Jakobi Meyers 17 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:45Jakobi Meyers 17 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)NYG 0 – 7 LV · LV 54% → 72% +17LV 54% → 72%+17 pts
- Q25:06Josh Jacobs 2 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)NYG 0 – 14 LV · LV 75% → 89% +15LV 75% → 89%+15 pts
- Q21:57Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)NYG 0 – 21 LV · LV 90% → 97% +7LV 90% → 97%+7 pts
- Q20:04Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field GoalNYG 0 – 24 LV · LV 97% → 99% +1LV 97% → 99%+1 pts
- Q38:23Daniel Carlson 46 Yd Field GoalNYG 0 – 27 LV · LV >99% → >99% +0LV >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raiders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -1
- LV 54%
- Fair odds
- LV -120
- NYG +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 19.6 – 20.9 LV
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −3 | −15 | NYG: Daniel Jones · LV: Aidan O'Connell, usually Jimmy Garoppolo (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +31 Elo | LV 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 54.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3211.9 | Points scored | 15.830th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 23.422nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.5 | Margin | −7.628th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.06 | Yards per play | 4.6328th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2119th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.