Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Jimmy GaroppoloPassing10/21, 126 YDS, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing15 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- Josh JacobsReceiving2 REC, 27 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing26/37, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing26 CAR, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving6 REC, 108 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:59Riley Patterson 52 Yd Field Goal14–26
- Q33:13Jahmyr Gibbs 27 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)14–23
- Q311:32Marcus Peters 75 Yd Interception Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–16
- Q20:27Sam LaPorta 18 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)7–16
- Q22:56Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–9
- Q28:08Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal0–9
- Q212:23Riley Patterson 31 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q17:51Riley Patterson 44 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:51Riley Patterson 44 Yd Field GoalLV 0 – 3 DET · DET 69% → 75% +7DET 69% → 75%+7 pts
- Q22:56Josh Jacobs 3 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 9 DET · LV 13% → 29% +16LV 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q20:27Sam LaPorta 18 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Riley Patterson Kick)LV 7 – 16 DET · DET 71% → 88% +17DET 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q311:32Marcus Peters 75 Yd Interception Return (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 14 – 16 DET · LV 12% → 30% +18LV 12% → 30%+18 pts
- Q33:13Jahmyr Gibbs 27 Yd Run (Riley Patterson Kick)LV 14 – 23 DET · DET 70% → 91% +21DET 70% → 91%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 73%
- Fair odds
- DET -230
- LV +230 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 18.7 – 24.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | — | LV: Jimmy Garoppolo · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +174 Elo | DET 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 69.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.0 | Points scored | 24.98th of 32 |
| 21st of 3223.0 | Points allowed | 21.619th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−7.0 | Margin | +3.310th of 32 |
| 26th of 324.75 | Yards per play | 5.597th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.07 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2718th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.