Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing33/53, 284 YDS, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing11 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving13 REC, 102 YDS
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/27, 357 YDS, 3 TD
- Gus EdwardsRushing14 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- Gus EdwardsReceiving1 REC, 80 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:30Justin Tucker 32 Yd Field Goal6–38
- Q413:59Jahmyr Gibbs 21 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–35
- Q37:25Mark Andrews 8 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–35
- Q27:45Gus Edwards 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–28
- Q212:54Mark Andrews 11 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–21
- Q13:11Nelson Agholor 12 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)0–14
- Q110:37Lamar Jackson 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Lamar Jackson 7 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)DET 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 50% → 67% +18BAL 50% → 67%+18 pts
- Q13:11Nelson Agholor 12 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)DET 0 – 14 BAL · BAL 69% → 84% +15BAL 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q212:54Mark Andrews 11 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)DET 0 – 21 BAL · BAL 85% → 94% +9BAL 85% → 94%+9 pts
- Q27:45Gus Edwards 2 Yd Run (Justin Tucker Kick)DET 0 – 28 BAL · BAL 95% → 99% +4BAL 95% → 99%+4 pts
- Q37:25Mark Andrews 8 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Justin Tucker Kick)DET 0 – 35 BAL · BAL >99% → >99% +0BAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lions 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- BAL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 21.6 – 21.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | DET: Jared Goff · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +11 Elo | DET 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.0 | Points scored | 22.215th of 32 |
| 9th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 15.24th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+9.2 | Margin | +7.07th of 32 |
| 4th of 325.75 | Yards per play | 5.1915th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.69 | Yards allowed per play | 4.022nd of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.