New York Jets at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Zach WilsonPassing17/36, 240 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach WilsonRushing4 CAR, 25 YDS
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 100 YDS
Giants- Tyrod TaylorPassing4/7, 8 YDS
- Saquon BarkleyRushing36 CAR, 128 YDS
- Darren WallerReceiving1 REC, 4 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT6:09Greg Zuerlein 33 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q40:00Greg Zuerlein 35 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q38:59Tommy DeVito 6 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)7–10
- Q11:06Breece Hall 50 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)7–3
- Q112:07Graham Gano 31 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:07Graham Gano 31 Yd Field GoalNYJ 0 – 3 NYG · NYG 45% → 53% +8NYG 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q11:06Breece Hall 50 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Greg Zuerlein Kick)NYJ 7 – 3 NYG · NYJ 46% → 65% +20NYJ 46% → 65%+20 pts
- Q38:59Tommy DeVito 6 Yd Run (Graham Gano Kick)NYJ 7 – 10 NYG · NYG 32% → 59% +27NYG 32% → 59%+27 pts
- Q40:00Greg Zuerlein 35 Yd Field GoalNYJ 10 – 10 NYG · NYJ 0% → 52% +52NYJ 0% → 52%+52 pts
- OT6:09Greg Zuerlein 33 Yd Field GoalNYJ 13 – 10 NYG · NYJ 52% → 74% +22NYJ 52% → 74%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -2
- NYJ 58%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -122
- NYG +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 21.3 – 19.9 NYG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +22 | NYJ: Zach Wilson, usually Aaron Rodgers · NYG: Tyrod Taylor, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +56 Elo | NYJ 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3218.8 | Points scored | 12.132nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 24.923rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −12.732nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 324.92 | Yards per play | 4.2631st of 32 |
| 15th of 325.12 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8030th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.