Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Taylor HeinickePassing8/15, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing22 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake LondonReceiving3 REC, 36 YDS
Cardinals- Kyler MurrayPassing19/32, 249 YDS, 1 INT
- James ConnerRushing16 CAR, 73 YDS
- Trey McBrideReceiving8 REC, 131 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Matt Prater 23 Yd Field Goal23–25
- Q42:33Desmond Ridder 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–22
- Q30:19Clayton Tune 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)17–22
- Q35:18Younghoe Koo 36 Yd Field Goal17–15
- Q39:16Matt Prater 56 Yd Field Goal14–15
- Q20:10Kyler Murray 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q24:07Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)14–6
- Q210:32Matt Prater 46 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q213:27Scott Miller 2 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)7–3
- Q14:48Matt Prater 51 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:27Scott Miller 2 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 7 – 3 ARI · ATL 48% → 68% +20ATL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q24:07Bijan Robinson 5 Yd Run (Younghoe Koo Kick)ATL 14 – 6 ARI · ATL 59% → 79% +20ATL 59% → 79%+20 pts
- Q30:19Clayton Tune 1 Yd Run (Matt Prater Kick)ATL 17 – 22 ARI · ARI 36% → 70% +34ARI 36% → 70%+34 pts
- Q42:33Desmond Ridder 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ATL 23 – 22 ARI · ATL 7% → 64% +57ATL 7% → 64%+57 pts
- Q40:00Matt Prater 23 Yd Field GoalATL 23 – 25 ARI · ARI 0% → 100% +100ARI 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Falcons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2.5
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -137
- ARI +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 22.4 – 20.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −25 | −64 | ATL: Taylor Heinicke, usually Desmond Ridder · ARI: Kyler Murray, usually Joshua Dobbs (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3218.4 | Points scored | 16.829th of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.3 | Points allowed | 26.729th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−2.9 | Margin | −9.930th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 4.7428th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4424th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.