Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Clayton TunePassing11/20, 58 YDS, 2 INT
- Clayton TuneRushing5 CAR, 28 YDS
- Hollywood BrownReceiving4 REC, 24 YDS
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing19/30, 219 YDS, 2 TD
- Jerome FordRushing20 CAR, 44 YDS
- Amari CooperReceiving5 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:48Kareem Hunt 3 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–27
- Q38:07David Njoku 5 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–20
- Q20:00Dustin Hopkins 45 Yd Field Goal0–13
- Q26:48Amari Cooper 11 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)0–10
- Q214:15Dustin Hopkins 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:15Dustin Hopkins 30 Yd Field GoalARI 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 73% → 80% +7CLE 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q26:48Amari Cooper 11 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)ARI 0 – 10 CLE · CLE 79% → 91% +13CLE 79% → 91%+13 pts
- Q20:00Dustin Hopkins 45 Yd Field GoalARI 0 – 13 CLE · CLE 92% → 95% +3CLE 92% → 95%+3 pts
- Q38:07David Njoku 5 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Dustin Hopkins Kick)ARI 0 – 20 CLE · CLE 96% → >99% +3CLE 96% → >99%+3 pts
- Q47:48Kareem Hunt 3 Yd Run (Dustin Hopkins Kick)ARI 0 – 27 CLE · CLE >99% → >99% +0CLE >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Browns 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9
- CLE 79%
- Fair odds
- CLE -321
- ARI +321 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 17.8 – 26.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −53 | +4 | ARI: Clayton Tune, usually Joshua Dobbs · CLE: Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +225 Elo | CLE 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 76.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3218.9 | Points scored | 22.013th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.6 | Points allowed | 19.912th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.8 | Margin | +2.112th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.08 | Yards per play | 4.5829th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 4.742nd of 32 |
| 30th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.